With the massive imbalance in basketball (16 teams) and just eight in football, change is definitely coming for the Big East. It's not expected to happen within the next few years, but maybe within the next decade we could see some renovations/improvements to the league. So when Connecticut football coach Randy Edsall mentioned the "E" word last week, message boards as well as the blogosphere exploded with the latest scenarios when expansion eventually comes calling.
I thought I heard just about every conceivable scenario. That is until I read a blog (or slog) by CSTV (will be CBS College Sports Network beginning in March) football editor Adam Caparell. He implied that in order for football to expand, the basketball side would have to downsize. We are probably in agreement with the idea of maybe a new conference breaking off from the Big East to form a still-powerful basketball presence. While the Big East wants the best of both worlds, football is still the big money-maker, no matter how powerful its hardwood side really is.
Once some form of change occurs on the hoops side, Caparell suggested that the next suitor for Big East membership should be a Mid-American Conference school, Miami (Ohio) in particular***. He talks up the long history of the Redhawks football program, which is hard to argue. They've always been competitive in the MAC, but being competitive and having history doesn't matter in this day of modern college athletics.
Money, television markets, and attendance matter.
Look no further than the last round of expansion for precedent. By now we've all heard of the University of South Florida, but 12 years ago that program didn't even exist. It didn't stop the Big East from admitting a program that had no accolades, not even a conference championship. With Tampa being the 13th-ranked television market, the conference knew there was room for growth. We all saw that growth this year with the Bulls being one of the stories of 2007. Attendance wasn't ever a big hit with South Florida, but with the program winning, seats were filled, upping revenue and recognition. As of right now, USF is a success in the eyes of the conference. Unless hit with sanctions due to recent academic problems, the Bulls will be around for a long time, being in the football-rich state of Florida.
Cincinnati was also given membership beginning in 2005, with basketball in mind. The football program has done well since the move, but basketball has floundered since the dismissal of Bob Huggins. Tons of empty seats can be seen on TV every time Cincy is playing football at Nippert Stadium, despite how well the team is doing. Announced average attendance for the Bearcats in 2007 came out to roughly 30,000. That is really disappointing for a recently successful BCS football school with a large alumni base and enrollment of over 36,000. There is obvious apathy when it comes to Bearcats football. Does the conference really need another school in the same market? (Miami University is 38 miles from Cincy’s campus).
Miami’s enrollment is over 16,000, and despite being one of the nation’s oldest football programs (dating back to 1888), the attendance is just dismal. In 2008, an average of only 16,186 fans made it out to Fred C. Yager stadium, good for 106th overall out of 119 FBS teams. Let’s not forget that this year’s team was one game away from a bowl berth (lost in MAC Championship), it’s not like they were 0-12. The numbers speak for themselves.
Before he said neither of these schools had anything to offer the Big East, Caparell mentioned three popular choices out of Conference USA: East Carolina, Memphis, and Central Florida. I only consider two of those to be realistic options for Big East admission.
I’ve been harping on the point that football is really the only sport that matters when it comes to the criteria needed for admission. However, basketball matters if you are really, REALLY bad. While ECU has been a giant killer on the gridiron in their football history (Miami (FL) is one example of teams they have owned), the basketball team is just terrible. 6-24 last season, 8-16 so far this year, and despite the two-win improvement, history has shown that they will continue to sit in the cellar. Regardless, the winning doesn’t matter has much as my main three examples of TV markets, attendance, and revenue.
ECU has one of the most passionate fan bases out there, and the football program is pretty good. The Pirates ranked 56th in attendance average with over 41,000 coming out, that’s not bad for a non-BCS program. The television market works against the Pirates though, with Greenville not even being in the top 100. This leaves little incentive for the conference to take on ECU with the limit the market puts on their growth.
Memphis and Central Florida have the most to offer the Big East. The Tigers usually find themselves playing in a bowl game year in and year out, and with the school always at or near the top of college hoops, this would provide a major lift to a conference that still won’t need it when all the hoops-only schools leave (this has to happen first before adding new two-sport teams, as established earlier in the article). The university is also exploring the possibility of a new football stadium on-campus, which shows dedication to growth of its athletics reach. Memphis is a top 50 television market, so that attribute helps its case. Geographic location works against the city, but these days in college football, it doesn’t matter. (Did you know Louisiana Tech is in the WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE?)
Since being passed over in favor of USF for Big East expansion, UCF worked at a feverish pace to upgrade its facilities and prepare itself for its future date with Big East presidents. A new arena and stadium are already in use, and the hiring of George O’Leary to get the program to a competitive level with the big boys looks like it is working so far with two conference championship appearances (one title) in three years. The basketball program came from the lowly Atlantic Sun and launched into the top half of a much-tougher Conference USA. Outside of Memphis, C-USA hoops is not as competitive as it used to be, but to have a big jump like that in such a short amount of time is impressive. If the nation’s 6th largest university can continue setting new football and basketball attendance, there is no reason to believe that they are not the best choice for expansion. UCF nearly averaged a sell-out (44,018 of a capacity of 45,000) for the season and reside in the 19th-ranked TV market. Like the Bulls, the Knights are based in the Sunshine State, so football has a chance for continued success.
Miami (Ohio) would have already punched its ticket to Big East membership if seniority matters, but since college athletics will always be about money and ratings, Conference USA’s Memphis and UCF are just better fits.
***The argument of Miami University heading to the Big East probably delights my esteemed colleague and Miami alumnus Eric Kay, who wrote a blog about two former Redhawks involved in the 11-player NBA trade a few days ago.
